The Cost of Optimism in Prospection : An Examination of Accurate and Optimistic Forecasting of Life Satisfaction — ASN Events
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  3. The Cost of Optimism in Prospection : An Examination of Accurate and Optimistic Forecasting of Life Satisfaction

The Cost of Optimism in Prospection : An Examination of Accurate and Optimistic Forecasting of Life Satisfaction (#220)

Joline Guitard 1 , Aaron Jarden 2
  1. School of Psychology, Université de Moncton, Moncton, Nouveau-Brunswick, Canada
  2. Centre for Wellbeing Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Background

Prospection is defined as mental representations of possible futures, which individuals use to forecast the expected outcomes of their decisions. Individuals then pursue the decisions they perceive as having the most favourable outcome for their future and avoid the ones they perceive as having less favourable outcomes (Gilbert & Wilson, 2007; Seligman et al., 2013). 

Aims

Our study focused on a specific type of prospection, cognitive forecasting of life satisfaction, and aimed to assess the impact of accuracy and optimism of these forecasts on subsequent levels of wellbeing. 

Method

We used longitudinal data from 576 individuals who took part in the International Wellbeing Study, in which they answered 208 questions every 3 months for a year (i.e., 5 time points). 

Results

Results highlighted that, individuals with accurate forecasts and those who surpassed their forecasted expectations for future life satisfaction had stronger relationships with wellbeing indicators (such as subjective happiness and hope), whereas those who did not meet their expectations had stronger relationships to illbeing indicators (such as rumination and the search for meaning in life). Regarding optimism of cognitive forecasting, and contrary to the established literature, our results showed that individuals with an optimistic style of forecasting had stronger relationships with illbeing indicators, whereas individuals with realistic and pessimistic styles of forecasting had stronger relationships with wellbeing indicators. Furthermore, we found that forecasts’ accuracy was very strongly linked to the average optimism of forecasts, such as the most optimistic forecasters were amongst the least accurate

Conclusion

The results and implications of this study are interpreted and discussed according to the Relative Standards Model (Diener & Lucas, 2000; Parducci, 1995).

  1. Diener, E., & Lucas, R. E. (2000). Explaining differences in societal levels of happiness: Relative standards, need fulfillment, culture and evaluation theory. Journal of Happiness Studies: An Interdisciplinary Forum on Subjective Well-Being, 1(1), 41–78. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010076127199
  2. Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2007). Prospection: Experiencing the future. Science, 317(5843), 1351–1354. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144161
  3. Parducci, A. (1995). Happiness, pleasure, and judgment: The contextual theory and its applications. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.
  4. Seligman, M. E. P., Railton, P., Baumeister, R. F., & Sripada, C. (2013). Navigating into the future or driven by the past. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(2), 119–141.
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